Cruise tourism has taken a heavy blow with the pandemic. What next?
So, you’re looking forward to an Ocean cruise again? How’s that going to be? Will the experience be so different that cruising just won’t be the same?
Where is cruise tourism going to be in 2021 and beyond?
What's in this article..
Going on your ocean cruise may feel very different from what you know. The term ‘cruise to nowhere’ may become very relevant.
Cruise tourism needs time to revive and respond. Itineraries may be non-existent or severely limited for a while. This due to foreign borders closed to guests.
The familiar will either be replaced or changed in a way that you do not recognise. As an ex-cruise director on several of the mega lines, I have a very profound sadness for my colleagues and the companies who have been hurt by this virus.
Having moved to the rivers of Europe, cruising on small ships – practically lifeboat size in comparison to the massive ships on Ocean these days, I look at the industry I love, from a new perspective.
I see that while these Ocean ships are ingeniously engineered, massive and impressive, their very size may now be their Achille’s heel.
Certainly, every type of vessel will have to take measures, big or small and the scale of those measures will be relative to tonnage.
20+ Ways how your cruising may change
1. Expect longer embarkation waits with increased health security. This may mean staged timings for guests to embark
2. More paperwork/digital access with filling out questionnaires
3. Wearing of face masks in ship public spaces. The effectiveness of this is questionable if you have people going to restaurants.
4. Very likely you will need to wear a face mask on excursion (as per destination requirements)
5. A more touchless environment from using your smart phone to access your cabin instead of key-cards. Less papers and more digital format from daily programs to marketing materials
6. Possibly a bill of good health will be a prerequisite from your doctor if you fall into any risk/age category when booking and embarking the vessel
7. Expect door sprays and sanitizer stations almost everywhere
8. No self-serving buffets
9. Most likely, new builds will slow in the coming years and older vessels will be scrapped.
10. Possibly the smaller vessels in the fleets would be rolled out initially to more easily manage guest volumes and social-distancing regulations that may still be in place.
11. Downsizing may have a role overall as the 2019 model of cruising will be redundant for a while
12. With social distancing comes a reconfiguration of crew occupancy. No more can companies put 3-4 crew to a cabin. This means a reduction in service personnel and/or less guests to fit a service-oriented ratio
13. New designs in cruise ships with social distancing and traffic flows considered. Refurbishments of present ships may be needed.
14. Post COVID19 and, the consensus seems to be that generally people are looking for health safety and less so the cost of a cruise. Ticket prices may rise after the initial re-start
15. More intimate, smaller surrounds and less crowded scenario seems to be the most voiced of aspirations of cruisers. Some cruise companies have smaller vessels on Ocean, catering for 200-950 guests or less. This model of ocean cruising is anticipated to do very well post-COVID19
16. Beware of price hikes. These may be the less visible type of increase. While you might get a great deal on the ticket price, on-board you may find that drink packages, shore excursions and the like will be hiked up to try and start a recovery to losses. This would, to my mind, be short-sighted and damaging in the long run to the reputation of the business. However, I suspect it likely.
17. Itineraries may be limited and the ‘cruise to nowhere’ may become common place initially.
18. Further conglomerate ownership of what were once stand-alone cruising brands
19. Expect the service smiles to be hidden by face masks
20. Libraries with tactile books to leaf through will most likely cease on-board.
UPDATES
21. Pools may be closed. This is already being implemented to some of the early starters.
22. Spa facilities closed (as per above)
23.We all know the somewhat arduous ‘rite to passage’ on a cruise ship involves that usually long muster station drill. It can be annoying as passengers line up in crowded rows at their assigned muster stations. Now, with COVID19 interfering in our ‘normalities’, things have to change. Royal Caribbean are one of the first. Muster 2.0, as it is called, will replace the general safety drill.
eMuster (a more trendy name) will have the guests looking at and reviewing the protocols of the drill on an app prior to setting sail. The information will also be on their stateroom TV.
Passengers will then be visiting their muster stations where a crew member will verify their understanding of the safety precautions and the passengers keycard will be scanned with (what I assume to be) a clearance that they completed the drill.
*It is important to note that some of these measures listed will be in the short term during the pandemic
CDC Extends Its No-Sail Order to September 30 – this announcement in July may see an even further extension until 2021 due to the current situation in the US.
NOTE: The CDC have just announced that they are
asking for feedback from the cruising public, as well as the industry stakeholders and cruise lines how the cruise tourism industry should proceed resumption of services with the ongoing COVID 19 pandemic. This means the the public can comment through the US Federal Register. It is a somewhat lengthy questionnaire of approx 60+ questions.
The casualties of COVID19 SO FAR
I guess it was inevitable. The costs of not operating are excessive and no cruise company can afford to keep their older vessels with a fleet that sits dormant. And so, sadly the cruise companies are beginning to shed their old timers and the costs that go with them.
Carnival Fantasy (1990-2020)
Carnival Inspiration (1996-2020)
Costa Victoria (1996-2020)
Monarch (1991-2020)
Sovereign (1988-2020)
Holland America say goodbye to 4 ships in their fleet: The Maasdam, Veendam, Rotterdam and Amsterdam. 3 of these ships I had the good fortune to work on as Cruise Director. Just 1258 guests, these were wonderful vessels.
Horizon (1990-2020) Celebrity Cruises and then sold to Pullmantur Cruises
This was my first ship I ever worked on. As a cruise staff member at the time, The Horizon has always been a special ship to me. It had all the attributes that I think a cruise ship should have.1800 guests and her simplicity was her strength.
Along with her sister, the Zenith, these were the ships that brought us the original concept of Celebrity cruises, along with the Meridian.
What are the alternatives for those who love cruising?
No bias here, but certainly river looks like it will be the first out of the stalls. Smaller, more intimate and manageable, river cruises look set to be the first to get operative.
Maybe not this year, although some operators are trying it out right now.
So would a river cruise be much fun during the pandemic? Here’s a great article from someone who has done a river cruise in Europe recently.
But what of the mega-ships?
Survival of the Fittest and Smartest in the Cruise Tourism Industry
So how are the bigger cruise lines going to deal with this if they have these enormous vessels to operate? Well, the jury is still out on that one. It really depends on the market reaction and CDC or governing bodies to the post-Pandemic landscape.
We have seen the US loosen restrictions and revert to some semblance of normality with the opening of stores, malls, bowling alleys, barbers, hair salons etc.
Please God, all is good and the spread, regardless of current relaxed practices, somehow dissipates. Is that likely? The scientists say no. The optimists say yes.
Whatever the case, the US market particularly, being the largest market in cruise tourism, will be sorely missed if they cannot come to the party. Here is where the fit and smart come in.
A cruise company will have to be financially fit to withstand the losses already incurred, flexible enough to invest in changes and smart enough to be able to seize new opportunities. With every challenge an opportunity exists.
The opportunity
Perhaps, this is the time for the large cruise ships to offer something different. Obviously, the health screening and precautions would have to be of the very highest and most stringent standards.
That said, and assuming all is in place, the delivery of product may have to be adapted. This could be a time to have a ‘loss-leader’ market to entice cruisers back and promote new business. But how?
Cruise ships may be the choice between having a local getaway or an international vacation. If Islands or countries across the globe will not accept tourists due to their homeland still suffering high infection rates, perhaps Americans and others could enjoy cruises out into the blue? The proverbial cruise to nowhere.
This could be a time when reasonable priced cruises are offered with a new model of business and practices that can be tested. So, there would be no port or perhaps, limited destinations, but the focus on the ship and its amenities. Akin to a luxury gaming and fun resort. However, the cruise tourism industry will have to make some changes for even this to happen.
Seducing cruise tourism back
Bigger is not always better. In this case, perhaps the industry needs to take this downtime to reassess issues that existed pre-Covid 19. Prior to Covid 19, the bigger ships were becoming somewhat obscene in their intrusion to a port.
Huge floating skyscrapers would rumble into dock, dwarfing everything. The destinations’ ability to handle an entire town/small city worth of tourists suddenly disembarking was a problem.
Infrastructures on islands and port towns struggled. Consider 2 or 3 such mega ships arriving on the same day and imagine what chaos was brought to the locals.
Many would argue that the local administrations could organize and control this. Yes and no.
The cruise industry is powerful and represents huge revenue to the local communities. In the analogy of: feeding the hungry, perhaps what you feed them is your responsibility, would apply. Now is the time for some synergy.
The cruise industry needs to find a symbiotic and productive balance with the destinations. A definite trend of at least a light form of Eco-tourism – responsible tourism, will probably emerge from this pandemic. I hope so, for both our planet and the industry.
Certainly, now is the time. Growth in the cruise tourism industry can be positive but probably more sustainable with smaller designs for new builds and the emphasis back to cruising and cruising style.
A cruise to nowhere can also be an enriching cruise experience if elegance and style is brought into the mix. And perhaps, less monolithic floating playgrounds for everything and everyone. The niche markets of cruising may be the place to focus on in the future.
Changing the profile of the large cruise ships
It is no secret that the large cruise ships carry with them a stigma for many people. The perception of Norovirus outbreaks, and now the legacy of Covid.
The crowded pool decks, jammed casino’s and patron heaving restaurants with the trough-like buffet lines of rampant self-serving over-indulgence may come to mind. Whilst the assumptions are neither fair nor accurate necessarily, the perception remains.
Already the cruise lines have determined that the free serving buffet stations will likely become a thing of the past. But this is the challenge that a large cruise ship company will be facing.
How to dismantle the bad reputations, earned or not, and how to appeal to cruisers again with a product that is sensitized to the new order?
Fortunately this is a collective problem and hopefully, with the assistance of CLIA, Cruise Lines International Association, cruise lines will collaborate.
I go back to my original point, that being to have a long hard look at what worked and what did not pre-COVID. Growth in the cruise market continues, at least it did in 2019. A market share of 4% of the traveling public.
That is seemingly a small percentile but actually translates into 22 million people worldwide taking a cruise per year. Now, that growth can be stunted if we, as the cruise tourism industry, do not address the future with fresh eyes. Small ships can much more easily adapt and secure guests.
The mega-liners need to go above and beyond:-
- Deal with preventative Covid and other outbreak measures with technology, exceptional disease prevention protocols, air conditioner filtering and with increased hygiene and specialist crew training
- Streamline the operations geared for guests first and let profit follow
- Eliminate the garishness of ‘nickel and diming’ and return integrity and value
- Bring back or improve the exceptional service we are renowned for
- Improve all aspects of hygiene and sanitary efforts.
- Create a sense of space with reservations for embarkation, theatre, attractions and dining
- Stagger shore excursions into smaller manageable groups
- Crowd control – design ways and structural consideration to eliminate crowded areas and long lines
- Stop relying on guest surveys as the go-to Oracle. For too long cruise companies have relied on the guest survey as their compass. It is a rough and subjective guide determined by weather, challenges and mood. There are better and more accurate ways to determine guest needs
Latests Posts
...scruples and responsible tourism should be the answerable master for cruise tourism and not the shareholders.
A few Operators in Cruise Tourism also need to address their ethics.
- Improve all aspects of hygiene and sanitary efforts.
- Cease exploitation! Fair wages for crew from third world or poorer countries
- Design vessels with less carbon footprint.
- Stop dumping waste into international waters or worse, sovereign waters.
- Avoid cruising in areas that have a sensitive ecology
- Encourage local goods purchasing at ports and not continually push imported ‘duty free’ items
- Support local communities (many do, with building of schools and other charitable drives)
There are many other areas that may need attention. The point here is that scruples and responsible tourism should be the answerable master for cruise tourism and not the shareholders.
What happens to these gigantic cruise vessels Post-COVID?
I do not pretend to understand the financial gearing of profits with a large cruise ship. But, as a Cruise Director with many years’ experience, it was certainly my observation that income was derived, not only by the cabin booking, but by occupancy vs retail on board.
The casino’s, shops, concessions such as port lecturers, spa, art, amusements, future cruise sales, beverage packet sales, a la carte dining, specialist items and tons more. These are the income/profit aspects of a large cruise ship.
Therefore, it stands to reason that the more guests you have, the more guest-spend.
Here is the rub. Post-covid 19 regulations/2nd outbreak, we may be talking about reducing the manifest of guests.
Occupancy levels of vessels may need to be brought down substantially to a profit-making minimum.
The use of space will need to be re-engineered. But how will that space be adapted? -A larger retail space?
This unfortunately is an area that perhaps needs addressing. It certainly was a problem pre-Covid and and it will be post Covid 19 if not refined.
The trend of some of the larger cruise lines was to nickel and dime at every turn, adversely impacting on the guest experience.
So, jamming in more retail opportunity with increased space may not be a good idea. I leave that conclusion to the marketing and financial experts.
Downsizing occupancy of huge cruise ships may not be a viable solution. In which case, the highest technological aided health standards, re-designed crowd flows, crowd control and structured disembarkation from the vessel and movement on it, should be implemented. And the market will have to be resilient enough to accept crowds again.
Can big ship cruising as we know it survive the post-COVID world?
The fact remains, large crowds are problematic and carry a high risk of contagion.
The acceptance of this risk by the consumer will determine whether precautions alone can open up the glut of people wanting to cruise on the big vessels.
Certainly, if bookings are anything to go by, it seems that the demand is there. The reservations for cruises in 2021 are said to be as much as 40% higher than 2019 at this time.
This, as travel deprived patrons seek their deserved break. Of course, bear in mind that a lot of the booking can be attributed to cancellations from 2020 and many have made bookings on the assumption that a vaccine or treatment would be on hand at that time.
Is this all just hype of the theoretical maybe?
Perhaps all this is a moot point. It really depends on the tolerance of the market, the pervasiveness of the disease and the governmental regulations.
The thing is, the smaller you go, the more exclusive and expensive the product. Will the market of exclusive be sustainable for the bigger companies?
Most likely not. Nor would it be fair to those who love cruising but could not afford it. In which case, the medical precautions, including expanded medical facilities, technology that aids testing, temperature checking, spraying etc would have to be profound. In other words, deeper investment made at a time when debts are already high.
But whatever the outcome, I would suggest that now is the time for cruise companies to reconsider their old business models and start implementing responsible cruise tourism for a new future.
Cruise tourism will be going somewhere. It will not be a cruise to nowhere
Cruising will certainly return and, if carried out with thought and a guest first/crew first and environment first philosophy, I believe will become simply the best form of vacation.
Perhaps, this should no longer be an arms-race between ship companies as to who can build a higher gross, wow-gasping tonnage cruise ship?
Certainly, if I were a ship operator, I would be happier to have smaller and more refined vessels in my portfolio right now. But this is not a slam on mega-ships.
Mega-ships have their role and are beloved by thousands. They truly are wondrous in their size and the amenities they can offer. They are a magnificent tribute to man’s imagination and engineering.
The question is, if they still can be relevant in a post-COVID seascape?
No matter what, we will all be cruising again. Personally, I cannot wait.
Please leave your thoughts or comments below
Great article! Very thorough. I really want to compliment you on the layout of your blog and the content. What a terrific read! You kept me occupied for hours. Thanks. Keep up the exceptional work!
I dont think a cruise is for me. I will wait until a better time